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[JAMA发表论文]:人群中心血管生物标志物的预后价值
2024年07月08日 时讯速递, 进展交流 [JAMA发表论文]:人群中心血管生物标志物的预后价值已关闭评论

Original Investigation 

May 13, 2024

Prognostic Value of Cardiovascular Biomarkers in the Population

Johannes Tobias Neumann, Raphael Twerenbold, Jessica Weimann, et al

JAMA. Published online May 13, 2024. doi:10.1001/jama.2024.5596

Key Points

Question  What is the value of cardiovascular biomarkers when added to established risk factors to predict incident cardiovascular events in the population?

Findings  In this large, individual-level data analysis from 28 general population–based cohorts from 12 countries, high-sensitivity cardiac troponins I and T, B-type natriuretic peptide, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein were associated with fatal and nonfatal events.

Meaning  The addition of biomarkers to established risk factors leads to only a small improvement in risk prediction metrics for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, but was more favorable for heart failure and mortality.

Abstract

Importance  Identification of individuals at high risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease within the population is important to inform primary prevention strategies.

Objective  To evaluate the prognostic value of routinely available cardiovascular biomarkers when added to established risk factors.

Design, Setting, and Participants  Individual-level analysis including data on cardiovascular biomarkers from 28 general population–based cohorts from 12 countries and 4 continents with assessments by participant age. The median follow-up was 11.8 years.

Exposure  Measurement of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, B-type natriuretic peptide, or high-sensitivity C-reactive protein.

Main Outcomes and Measures  The primary outcome was incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, which included all fatal and nonfatal events. The secondary outcomes were all-cause mortality, heart failure, ischemic stroke, and myocardial infarction. Subdistribution hazard ratios (HRs) for the association of biomarkers and outcomes were calculated after adjustment for established risk factors. The additional predictive value of the biomarkers was assessed using the C statistic and reclassification analyses.

Results  The analyses included 164 054 individuals (median age, 53.1 years [IQR, 42.7-62.9 years] and 52.4% were women). There were 17 211 incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events. All biomarkers were significantly associated with incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (subdistribution HR per 1-SD change, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.11-1.16] for high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I; 1.18 [95% CI, 1.12-1.23] for high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T; 1.21 [95% CI, 1.18-1.24] for N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide; 1.14 [95% CI, 1.08-1.22] for B-type natriuretic peptide; and 1.14 [95% CI, 1.12-1.16] for high-sensitivity C-reactive protein) and all secondary outcomes. The addition of each single biomarker to a model that included established risk factors improved the C statistic. For 10-year incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in younger people (aged <65 years), the combination of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein resulted in a C statistic improvement from 0.812 (95% CI, 0.8021-0.8208) to 0.8194 (95% CI, 0.8089-0.8277). The combination of these biomarkers also improved reclassification compared with the conventional model. Improvements in risk prediction were most pronounced for the secondary outcomes of heart failure and all-cause mortality. The incremental value of biomarkers was greater in people aged 65 years or older vs younger people.

Conclusions and Relevance  Cardiovascular biomarkers were strongly associated with fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular events and mortality. The addition of biomarkers to established risk factors led to only a small improvement in risk prediction metrics for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, but was more favorable for heart failure and mortality.

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