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[Lancet Respir Med发表论文]:2020年12月至2023年3月间WHO欧洲区新冠病毒疫苗项目直接挽救的人数估计
2024年10月31日 时讯速递, 进展交流 [Lancet Respir Med发表论文]:2020年12月至2023年3月间WHO欧洲区新冠病毒疫苗项目直接挽救的人数估计已关闭评论

ARTICLESVolume 12, Issue 9P714-727September 2024

Estimated number of lives directly saved by COVID-19 vaccination programmes in the WHO European Region from December, 2020, to March, 2023: a retrospective surveillance study

Margaux M I Meslé, Jeremy Brown, Piers Mook, et al

Lancet Respir Med 2024; 12: 714-727

Summary

Background

By March, 2023, 54 countries, areas, and territories (hereafter CAT) in the WHO European Region had reported more than 2·2 million COVID-19-related deaths to the WHO Regional Office for Europe. Here, we estimated how many lives were directly saved by vaccinating adults in the WHO European Region from December, 2020, to March, 2023.

Methods

In this retrospective surveillance study, we estimated the number of lives directly saved by age group, vaccine dose, and circulating variant-of-concern (VOC) period, regionally and nationally, using weekly data on COVID-19 mortality and infection, COVID-19 vaccination uptake, and SARS-CoV-2 virus characterisations by lineage downloaded from The European Surveillance System on June 11, 2023, as well as vaccine effectiveness data from the literature. We included data for six age groups (25–49 years, 50–59 years, ≥60 years, 60–69 years, 70–79 years, and ≥80 years). To be included in the analysis, CAT needed to have reported both COVID-19 vaccination and mortality data for at least one of the four older age groups. Only CAT that reported weekly data for both COVID-19 vaccination and mortality by age group for 90% of study weeks or more in the full study period were included. We calculated the percentage reduction in the number of expected and reported deaths.

Findings

Between December, 2020, and March, 2023, in 34 of 54 CAT included in the analysis, COVID-19 vaccines reduced deaths by 59% overall (CAT range 17–82%), representing approximately 1·6 million lives saved (range 1·5–1·7 million) in those aged 25 years or older: 96% of lives saved were aged 60 years or older and 52% were aged 80 years or older; first boosters saved 51% of lives, and 60% were saved during the Omicron period.

Interpretation

Over nearly 2·5 years, most lives saved by COVID-19 vaccination were in older adults by first booster dose and during the Omicron period, reinforcing the importance of up-to-date vaccination among the most at-risk individuals. Further modelling work should evaluate indirect effects of vaccination and public health and social measures.

Funding

US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

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