Research

25 year trends in cancer incidence and mortality among adults aged 35-69 years in the UK, 1993-2018: retrospective secondary analysis

Jon Shelton, Ewa Zotow, Lesley Smith, et al

BMJ 2024; 384 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2023-076962 (Published 13 March 2024)Cite this as: BMJ 2024;384:e076962

Abstract

Objective To examine and interpret trends in UK cancer incidence and mortality for all cancers combined and for the most common cancer sites in adults aged 35-69 years.

Design Retrospective secondary data analysis.

Data sources Cancer registration data, cancer mortality and national population data from the Office for National Statistics, Public Health Wales, Public Health Scotland, Northern Ireland Cancer Registry, NHS England, and the General Register Office for Northern Ireland.

Setting 23 cancer sites were included in the analysis in the UK.

Participants Men and women aged 35-69 years diagnosed with or who died from cancer between 1993 to 2018.

Main outcome measures Change in cancer incidence and mortality age standardised rates over time.

Results The number of cancer cases in this age range rose by 57% for men (from 55 014 cases registered in 1993 to 86 297 in 2018) and by 48% for women (60 187 to 88 970) with age standardised rates showing average annual increases of 0.8% in both sexes. The increase in incidence was predominantly driven by increases in prostate (male) and breast (female) cancers. Without these two sites, all cancer trends in age standardised incidence rates were relatively stable. Trends for a small number of less common cancers showed concerning increases in incidence rates, for example, in melanoma skin, liver, oral, and kidney cancers. The number of cancer deaths decreased over the 25 year period, by 20% in men (from 32 878 to 26 322) and 17% in women (28 516 to 23 719); age standardised mortality rates reduced for all cancers combined by 37% in men (−2.0% per year) and 33% in women (−1.6% per year). The largest decreases in mortality were noted for stomach, mesothelioma, and bladder cancers in men and stomach and cervical cancers and non-Hodgkin lymphoma in women. Most incidence and mortality changes were statistically significant even when the size of change was relatively small.

Conclusions Cancer mortality had a substantial reduction during the past 25 years in both men and women aged 35-69 years. This decline is likely a reflection of the successes in cancer prevention (eg, smoking prevention policies and cessation programmes), earlier detection (eg, screening programmes) and improved diagnostic tests, and more effective treatment. By contrast, increased prevalence of non-smoking risk factors are the likely cause of the observed increased incidence for a small number of specific cancers. This analysis also provides a benchmark for the following decade, which will include the impact of covid-19 on cancer incidence and outcomes.